Miami–South Florida, FL

Market Update

The Miami–South Florida market continues to experience robust population growth, with a current population of approximately 6.46 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 4.4%. This growth trajectory follows a consistent upward trend from 6.09 million in 2021 to the current level. Despite this population increase, the region has faced a net migration loss of approximately 28,600 individuals, which may impact housing demand dynamics. The median household income stands at $80,625, while the unemployment rate is at 4.5%, suggesting a relatively stable employment environment. The average weekly wage is reported at $1,532, and renters account for about 39.2% of the population, indicating a significant demand for rental housing.

In terms of multifamily fundamentals, the HUD Fair Market Rent for a two-bedroom unit is benchmarked at $1,771, which is notably lower than the asking rent of $2,388 for similar units. Year-over-year multifamily rent growth is recorded at 1.9%, with the median gross rent remaining stable at $2,083. This suggests a moderate rental market where affordability remains a concern, particularly as the asking rents exceed the HUD benchmarks. The relatively low rent growth compared to the national median of 3.5% indicates potential challenges in maintaining rental momentum in the face of rising costs.

Capital markets activity over the trailing 24 months has seen 1,371 transactions with a total dollar volume of approximately $2.55 billion, resulting in a median price per unit of $304,375. The multifamily cap rate is currently at 6.83%, which is roughly 21 basis points tighter than the national median of 7.04%. This reflects a competitive investment environment, although the cap rate remains stable compared to the previous quarter. Overall, the market presents a mixed outlook, with strong demographic trends juxtaposed against affordability challenges and a recent decline in net migration, which may influence future demand for housing.